Elijiah Brown (center) and Brendan Collela (right in the maroon jersey) are vying for the starting job at Wiregrass Ranch. (Photos: Charmaine George)
Spring football always presents a host of questions for area coaches to answer.
Who is going to start here, who is going to block there, and who is going to step up in the fall?
But, in Wesley Chapel this month, all three local high schools have at least one question in common:
Who is going to play quarterback?
The game’s most important position at Wiregrass Ranch (WRH), Wesley Chapel (WCH) and Cypress Creek (CCH) was handled by seniors Rocco Becht, Ethan Harper and Owen Walls, respectively. Together, the trio passed for more than 4,300 yards and 45 touchdowns. Their backups threw a combined five passes, completing one.
So, who will line up under center on May 19 when Cypress Creek hosts a jamboree against Pasco and St. Petersburg Catholic and Wiregrass Ranch visits Berkeley Prep at 7 p.m., or May 20 when Wesley Chapel hosts Land O’Lakes at 7 p.m.?
Good question.
Bryson Rodgers is considered one of the top prep receivers in the country.
Nowhere does the quarterback search seem more of a necessity than at WRH, where the Bulls are flush with a pair of fantastic, dare we say once-in-a-lifetime wide receivers.
Rising senior Bryson Rodgers recently committed to Ohio State — which had two wideouts drafted in the first round of last month’s NFL Draft — and rising junior Izaiah Williams picked up a college offer from national champion Georgia last week, to go with those he has received from the likes of Florida State, Cincinnati and Michigan.
Bulls coach Mark Kantor admits it’s not ideal to have to find a new, unproven quarterback for a roster that arguably has the two best receivers in school history, but he has his fingers crossed that the answer emerges from the spring battle between last year’s backup Elijiah Brown and junior varsity starter Brendyn Collela.
“They’re even right now,” says Kantor.
While Kantor would like to see a starter emerge that can take advantage of his star receivers, who combined for 1,200 yards and 18 TDs last year, he does have the area’s top returning running back in Kenneth Walker, who scored seven TDs last year.
Quarterback aside, Kantor does have other issues. He has an offensive line to replace, though he feels good about the spring efforts so far and thinks he has found four of the five future starters, and his defense has to be better.
Last fall, the Bulls lost four of their last five games and surrendered an average of 37 points in those losses.
He is counting on guys like rising senior Nick Johnson (LB) and Elijiah Westbrooks (CB), rising junior Jaden Bering (MLB) and rising sophomore Ola Omaloye (MLB) to pack some extra punch into the defensive unit.
“We’ve got to get back to playing physical defense,” Kantor says. “I gotta find some dudes who want to crack-a-lack.”
CCH Grooming Neimann
Meanwhile, at Cypress Creek, Walls’ departure will hurt, but coach Mike Johnson likes what he has seen in jayvee starter and rising junior Jack Neimann this offseason.
“I think we’ve got some great guys trying to fill those shoes,” Johnson says. “Jack is a guy who has been productive, and we have a lot of confidence in him.”
While quarterback may be the biggest loss, the entire offense is in need of a spring overhaul. Even if Neimann can prove to be the answer at QB, he will need blockers, pass catchers and running backs and the Coyotes went into spring looking for all those things.
Dylan Lolley, a 6-3, 225-pound tight end, is a great route runner and had 28 catches for 329 yards last year, so he’ll be counted on to replace a lot of the 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns lost to graduation. And, rising senior running back Tre Gibson is expected to take over in the backfield.
As for the offensive line, Johnson says a torn ACL, back surgery and dislocated elbow will keep three of his veteran offensive/defensive linemen sidelined this spring, but he feels good about the fall.
Defensively, it’s been a five-year battle to find a unit that can produce like Johnson wants it to. In the team’s brief history, the Coyotes have been allowing more than 30 points a game.
Can The ‘Cats Run To Wins?
While the Wildcats (6-4 last season) also need a quarterback, they don’t rely on the pass as much as their area counterparts.
Harper threw for 600 yards last season, so whoever inherits the reigns between rising senior Dillon McGinnis, junior Colin Opperman and sophomore Desmond Devore won’t be asked to do too much.
Instead, how they lead WCH’s run-first offense will be the key.
“Whoever shows the leadership for the position will be the guy,” says coach Anthony Egan.
Egan has rising senior bookend tackles in Max Hambrecht (6-4, 325) and Ryan Warren (6-3, 270) and tight end Conner Libby (6-5, 230) to anchor his offensive line, so look for the Wildcats to do what the coach likes best and pound the rock while controlling the clock. The loss of 1,000-yard rusher Jaylan Blake needs to be replaced, and Egan says last year’s fullback Mason Quinn could be that guy.
On the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Josh Poleon will anchor the unit, which is in rebuilding mode. The hardest part about rebuilding, whether it’s finding one player like a quarterback or an entire defensive line, are the number of choices. At Wesley Chapel, Egan’s biggest spring battle could be finding enough players.
“We’re still struggling with numbers,” says Egan, who had about 45 kids out this spring. “It definitely presents some special challenges. We have good kids, with great skills, but we need more of them.”
Camila Jaramillo (left), Maria Burbano and Melissa Acosta serving up chips and salsa, the popular chicken fajitas and a steak burrito during lunch at Cantina Mexican Grill & Bar.
1. Cantina 10032 Cross Creek Blvd (813) 406-4856
Owner Yecid Cardenas opened Cantina Mexican Grill & Bar six years ago with the idea of filling what he saw as a hole in New Tampa’s dining options with a fusion of old Mexican cuisine with what he says is “new era” Mexican cuisine. After some mixed results when he first opened, Cardenas now has achieved one of his goals:
Cantina is this year’s top choice with our readers in the Latin category of our annual survey.
Cantina rose to the top of the charts this year with an improved and packed menu, and the consistency also was much improved. Cardenas also says many more people were exposed to the restaurant (which is tucked away behind a Shell station on the corner of Cross Creek Blvd. and Kinnan St.) due to a pandemic-influenced increase in to-go orders, and more customers equaled more votes.
“We try to do the same thing every day,” he says. “We want to be consistent. These are ‘Grandma’ flavors here, with new era fusion.”
The menu is extensive and varied. One of the stars of the menu is the 12 oz. ribeye served up a handful of different ways — you can get it topped with ranchero chile sauce or chorizo and fries, for example. The carne asada steak is another of the most popular dishes, along with the fajitas, and of course, the tacos and burritos. There are a host a seafood choices available, as well.
A bar with 12 different Mexican beers and, of course, tasty margaritas, complement your meal, which according to our readers, is the best Latin choice around. — JCC
Las Palmas has now had two locations in New Tampa — three if you count the food truck it currently is operating out of after a fire late in late 2021 damaged its County Line Rd. store — and it has always remained something of an under-the-radar local favorite, thanks to its award-winning Cuban sandwiches and a variety of delicious Latin-infused pork and chicken dishes.
The roasted pork entrée is a favorite, and you can try the vaca frita, or crispy beef (although “fried cow” is the literal translation) as an entrée or in a taco. And, while owner/chef Ramses Garcia says the menu at the truck is being expanded, the sides — yellow rice, black beans, plantains, etc. — are still the perfect complements to whatever meaty dish you choose, and don’t forget a Tres Leches dessert.—JCC
For a large chain, Tijuana Flats has a pretty simple recipe but is regarded for having some pretty good food. The regular burritos and dos tacos (hard or soft shell) are good, the nachos are enough for two and the chicken tinga burritios and tacos have a little extra kick.
Speaking of a little kick, one of the fun things about Tijuana Flats is the wide variety of different salsas, which are always worth trying out and comparing.
Locals also are raving about Tijuana Flats’ new wings, available with red chili rub, “bangin’” sauce, chipotle BBQ and smack jalapeño lime varieties.
Although tucked away off Bruce B. Downs Blvd., just north of I-75 in Highwoods Preserve, Tijuana Flats continues to draw a good local crowd, and is always a fun spot to be on Cinco de Mayo. — JCC
The rest of the 2021 Latin Favorites with our readers: (4) Chipotle (5) Lima (6) Don Julio (7) Moe’s (8) Chili’s (9) Cross Creek Deli
1. Stonewood Grill 17050 Palm Pointe Dr. (813) 978-0388 Stonewoodgrill.com
Based on the results of our Annual Reader Dining Survey every year since 2011, it doesn’t matter how many new restaurants — chain or otherwise — open in New Tampa, the nearly unbeaten (it “only” finished second once, in 2015) champion is Stonewood Grill & Tavern in Tampa Palms.
After winning by a comfortable margin again this year with its third managing partner in as many years, Stonewood has shown that it doesn’t matter who’s in charge, its combination of delicious American cuisine, great drinks and outstanding service continue to make it top-of-mind with our readers — despite the fact it always has been one of the most expensive eateries located in zip code 33647.
Stonewood’s extensive menu includes everything from fresh seafood to great steaks and chops (photo, right), plus big salads, pasta dishes and more, and it likely has become even more popular with our readers since it began opening for lunch (with a smaller, and less pricey, lunch menu, although the dinner menu also is available at lunch time).
Among the favorite starters at Stonewood are the tasty and ever-popular bruschetta (served with a delicious balsamic dressing) and sesame-seed-seared ahi tuna served with wasabi cream and sesame ginger dressing.
Salad lovers definitely go for the Asian chicken salad (with ginger lime-marinated chicken, chilled sesame noodles and sesame ginger dressing) and the Stonewood salad (with blue cheese crumbles, dried cranberries, blackened walnuts and blue cheese vinaigrette).
Handheld favorites include the oak-grilled cheeseburger, two-hand chicken club and the veggie quesadilla.
And, with great steaks like two sizes of filet mignon and prime rib, a unique sweet tea brined pork chop and blackened chicken pasta. Market Fresh Fish options include ever-changing favorites like Chilean sea bass, grouper and the menu options like Atlantic salmon and yellowfin tuna.
Stonewood also has New Tampa’s second favorite bar with our readers this year and a great Sunday brunch with bottomless bubbles and unique menu items like creme brulée French toast, shrimp and grits and crab cake and prime rib Bennies. — GN
2. Mr. Dunderbak’s 14929 Bruce B. Downs Blvd. (813) 977-4104 Dunderbaks.com
J.B. Ellis bought Mr. Dunderbak’s with the intention of owning a bar, but over the years, he says the place has shifted from being 66% bar and 33% restaurant to 33% bar and 66% restaurant.
Ellis has only himself to blame. A combination of old-time classics (the sandwich board has barely changed in 50 years) to derivations of old family recipes Ellis has tweaked just a little keeps the crowds coming back for seconds. The food (like the Venison sausage platter pictured) must be getting better every year. After a No. 4 finish in 2019, and No. 3 in 2020, Mr. Dunderbak’s inches up another spot in our 2021 Reader Survey., its highest-ever finish.
Mr. Dunderbak’s is an experience. It also boasts this year’s No. 1 bar with our readers, featuring a seemingly unlimited variety of beer, a gift shop, a deli, and atmosphere that is pure Oktoberfest, with the best German dishes around. Choose from authentic favorites like schnitzel, Spaetzle, Kartoffelpuffer (potato pancakes) and Sauerbraten, to name a few, and wash it all down with a delicious Hefeweizen. — JCC
3. Liang’s Bistro 17515 Bruce B. Downs Blvd. (813) 978-1225 LiangsBistroTampa.com
Like Stonewood and Mr. Dunderbak’s, Liang’s Bistro is another perennial favorite with our readers.
Although it is more of an Asian fusion restaurant — which also includes Japanese- and Thai-style options — than a classic New York-style Chinese place, Liang’s has been the favorite Chinese or Asian (depending upon which of those options have been offered in the Survey each year) place in New Tampa pretty much every year it’s been open and has never finished lower than sixth Favorite Restaurant overall.
Although I love it for menu items like the crispy pork egg rolls, Liang’s BBQ ribs, sautéed string beans (I order them spicy) and sizzling Shanghai steak, our readers always mention Liang’s signature dishes — like General Tso’s, sesame, orange, pineapple or tropical chicken — as their favorites.
Liang’s also offers lunch specials and currently is the only sit-down Chinese place in New Tampa, where you can enjoy a variety of wines and bottled beers. — GN
4. VIA ITALIA Outstanding pizzas and pasta, and the charcuterie is a treat.
5. ACROPOLIS New Tampa’s favorite Mediterranean returns to the top-5.
6. FIRST WATCH New location, same old results for bougie breakfast fans.
7. CALI Tampa Palms staple drops after 4 straight years at No. 2.
8. SUSHI CAFE The best sushi in New Tampa, according to our readers.
9. GLORY DAYS The place to go for good food, football & beer. Nice patio, too.
10. FRESH KITCHEN Another newcomer bowls into our Top 10, for good reason.
11. FAT RABBIT Tampa Palms hangout has all the ingredients of a perfect bar.
T12. KOBE JAPANESE STEAKHOUSE New Tampa’s only teppanyaki tables moves south on BBD
T12. LAS PALMAS Fabulous pork and Cubans sold from a food truck, for now.
14. BRUNCHERY Super specials for breakfast & lunch, tasty skillets and more.
T15. CANTINA REAL MEXICAN RESTAURANT Has built a loyal following on Cross Creek Blvd.
T15. CRACKER BARREL Still attracting attention & votes despite more competition.
T17. BURGER 21 The last to finish No. 1 ahead of Stonewood, back in 2015.
T17. FRAMMI Area is flush with delish Italian food, don’t sleep on Frammi.
T19. CAPPY’s The Chicago- and New York-style pizzas are reader favorites.
T19. RED LOBSTER In an area lacking seafood, Red Lobster remains popular.
This 1914 Willard P. Smith Co. typewriter may only be worth $2,000, but Armstrong says it would take 500 times more than that for him to give it up, as it means the most to him. (Photo: John C. Cotey)
Like most kids his age, 16-year-old Jack Armstrong can sit in front of a keyboard for hours on end, expertly manipulating the keys with his fingers to get the desired result.
There is one major difference, however. Instead of doing so in front of a computer, Armstrong is sitting in front of an actual typewriter, which are sometimes 100 years older than he is.
Whether it’s an 1880s Caligraph 2, a 1907 Handler or a 1914 Annell, Armstrong takes great delight in dissecting these machines from another time and restoring them to their original working condition, which he then sells, trades or displays on a shelf in his bedroom.
“It’s a passion,” he says of his craftsmanship. “I just love it.”
Armstrong is a rarity in the world of typewriter collectors and repairs, due to his age, but he is far from alone. He estimates that there are roughly 5,000-6,000 typewriter enthusiasts across the country who gather at small conventions and actively collect, trade and sell machines that may be outdated, but still stoke a deep love and appreciation from their admirers.
Armstrong has loved typewriters since he was a young kid, when his mother Rebecca would drag him with her on her Saturday afternoon antiquing expeditions.
Always a mechanical sort with a knack for taking things apart to see how they work, Armstrong was always drawn to the old typewriters he would see, with so many gears and type bars.
He was 12 when he asked for one for Christmas, and his parents bought him a 1949 Royal. It needed repairs, so he found some tips on YouTube and, an hour later, the Royal was back in service.
“I was able to take this old antique that didn’t work and make it like new,” Armstrong says. “I got addicted to that, and it’s been snowballing ever since.”
An online high school student who is practically on the computer 24/7, Armstrong says he finds the tactile experience and ability to disconnect while he types refreshing and necessary. He types and mails 3-4 letters a week to friends and other collectors.
And Armstrong has turned his passion into a business— the Tampa Typewriter Co. People from around the world now send him their typewriters, paying — and praying — for a miracle restoration.
He says he made $20 on his first repair job, though that same job would cost $100 now. His slogan: “I can repair any typewriter from 1880 to 1980.”
“It just clicked at that moment that I’ve tapped into a niche,” Armstrong says. “I can turn this into a genuine business.”
Jack Armstrong works on a typewriter in his garage workshop.
While others may just paint or spruce up older typewriters for customers who want a display piece, Armstrong says he tries to keep the original finish, even if that means a good helping of elbow grease. He will source the parts and replace things like the felt soundproofing, the rubber feet and everything in between.
“What I focus on is making them work,” he says. “I make them as nice as possible, and as new as possible.”
That means zero short cuts, which might include polishing a part of the typewriter that you will never see again. “I shine it up to a mirror finish, even though you won’t see it unless you take the machine apart.”
Armstrong’s latest effort was restoring an 1890 Caligraph No. 2 with a matching table. He put in more than 25 hours on the project, and has it listed for $2,000 on tampatypewriter.com. He wouldn’t hate keeping it as his own, either.
So Many Stories…
In his Wesley Chapel home, which includes a workshop in his garage, Armstrong has roughly 100 typewriters — 80 are his, and the other 20 he is repairing.
Typewriters that still work are rare. Of the 100 or so he says he has purchased via eBay over the years, only three arrived without needing anything more than a new ribbon.
For Jack Armstrong (top) restoring typewriters like the 1890 Caligraph No. 2 (above) is a passion that he has turned into a successful business.
He’s always looking. The one typewriter he would like to own? A Commercial Visible 6, a sleek silver machine with a gold decal that uses a type wheel that can be switched with another to change the font.
It originally sold for $50 in 1898. Armstrong says only 35 are known to still exist.
“It’s one of the most beautiful typewriters ever produced,” Armstrong says.
His most valuable typewriter is a Willard P. Smith Co. Armstrong says everything he has can be had for a price, but the Willard P. Smith would require a hefty bounty.
He won the typewriter in an auction on eBay, bribing other bidders to bow out. It cost him $800 total.
“No typewriter has ever sold for over a million dollars. But, I would need over a million dollars (to sell the Willard P. Smith),” Armstrong says. “It’s just too special to me.”
Armstrong’s prized possession, however, is an Armstrong typewriter, which he wanted because of the shared name. There are only 14 in existence, and he owns two of them.
“They are my obsession,” he says, and they share a shelf with the Willard P. Smith in his room, which he refers to as his own personal typewriter museum.
When it comes to actual museums, Armstrong will soon have some of his own handiwork on display in one. A few typewriters that he restored for collectors Mark and Christina Albrecht of Bradenton were bought as part of a larger collection for a soon-to-be-built museum in Dubai, “which is pretty cool,” Armstrong says.
Every typewriter in his room has a story, and Armstrong revels in telling them. There’s the Type-a-Tune, a 1949 machine used to teach typing that also plays music, and he was offered $800 just for the instructional book alone.
A Simplex typewriter has attracted offers of more than $5,000, and a Vogue Royal with a sans serif typeface will sell for roughly $3,500. A rusty Annell is one of only 11 known to exist and has a pharmaceutical keyboard, as well as a sans serif typeface, making it even rarer, while his Mignon Model 2B has a Blackletter typeface called Fraktur. The typewriter was produced during a time when the Fraktur typeface was obsolete and not used, he says.
Thanks to some recent media exposure, Tampa Typewriter Co. is growing. Armstrong has restored nearly 250 typewriters, and as word of his dedication and prowess spreads, more business keeps coming his way. He has made more than $50,000 in sales to date, and says he would one day like to open a physical location.
Typewriters themselves may be obsolete, but this Wesley Chapel teenager is working hard to keep them alive.
“I’m 16, and I think people like the idea of this young gun working on these old machines,” Armstrong says. “It’s an unmatched level of work, and I just have this insane passion for it that most people don’t.”
For typewriter repairs, refurbs and resales, or just to check out some of the many collectibles Armstrong has repaired, visit TampaTypewriter.com, send an email to Tampatypewriter@gmail.com or call (813) 992-9799.
Glenn and Gretchen Schmidt started building in Wesley Chapel’s Estancia community last July, before things got crazy in the housing market. When their new house was ready, they were able to sell the home they owned in New Tampa pictured above, in just two days. (Photos: Charmaine George)
When it came time to sell their home in West Meadows to move into their new home in Estancia, Glenn Schmidt and his wife Gretchen knew they were entering a pretty good local housing market for sellers.
So, when the Schmidts finally listed their home with long-time New Tampa Realtor Kristy Darragh of Florida Executive Realty, they were hoping there was enough interest that they’d at least get their asking price.
On a Friday, the Schmidt’s four-bedroom, three-bath house was officially put up for sale. On Saturday, they had 33 people show up for a showing.
On Sunday morning, there were 22 more scheduled showings by 2 p.m.
“I had to stop setting appointments,” Glenn says. “My phone would not stop blowing up.”
By the end of the weekend, the Schmidts had 15 offers, including two buyers offering to pay in cash, and they eventually accepted a bid well over their asking price.
“We significantly more than doubled what we originally paid for the house,” he says. “It’s one thing to hear that you’re going to do very well when you sell, but then to see (this)? It was ridiculous.”
The Schmidts’ story would have been highly unusual just a year ago. But nowadays, it’s normal.
“This market, it’s a phenomenon,” says Darragh. “It’s mind boggling.”
*****
In Wesley Chapel and elsewhere, the sky seems to be the limit, as soaring prices and sinking inventory make the market a real dogfight.
In our coverage area in Wesley Chapel, which includes zip codes 33543, 33544 and 33545, there were only 60 single family homes listed for sale as of June 24. The median home was a 4BR/3BA, with 2,573 square feet of living space and a listing price of $507,498.
Of those 60 homes, only eight were new construction, and the median price on those was $650,000, or a staggering $246 per square foot.
The 52 resales, with a median size of 4BR/3BA and 2,654 square feet, had a median price of $498,000, or $198 per square foot.
(Florida Realtors)
Countywide, the numbers are staggering as well.
According to the Florida Realtors, the median sale price of all 1,083 houses sold in Pasco County in May was $300,380, a 20.2% increase over the $250,000 median price in May 2020.
Meanwhile, the average price soared to $343,070, a 27% increase from the previous year.
The median time to contract on the homes sold this May was five days, while last year it was 27 days.
Inventory is down to 637 homes, compared with 1,746 last year.
Although Wesley Chapel is a growing housing market with thousands of homes coming along the S.R. 56 extension and in large communities like Epperson, Avalon Park West and the Connected City corridor, builders can’t keep up, hence the lack of inventory.
Realtor Chris Henry says that the current craziness in the local real estate market isn’t likely to suffer another “housing bubble” anytime soon.
Combine all of that with historically low interest rates (around 3%) and a massive influx of new residents running away from coronavirus-ravaged states to Florida, which also has friendlier tax policies and “you have a perfect storm,” says local Realtor Chris Henry.
He says that there are 20 or more buyers for almost every house being sold, and anything under $350,000 sells almost instantly, usually for more than the asking price — and often with cash. In fact, 27.1% of sales in May were paid in cash, a number that has increased every month since November 2020, when it was 17.6 percent.
Henry says he recently listed a client’s home for $25,000 more than he normally would have because of the market, and it led to 74 showings over the next two days, resulting in 33 written offers. The house sold for an additional $30,000 over that already-inflated asking price.
“You know, it’s cliché to say, but this is really unprecedented,” Henry says.
Another of Henry’s clients, Noemi Delgado, sold the Riverview townhome she had only lived in for eight months for a $40,000 profit, and turned around and used that money to put down on a new home. “With money to spare,” she says.
Delgado initially planned to live in her townhome for two years before selling but with some prodding from Henry, took a more aggressive approach.
In this market, it might be the only way to succeed.
*****
While traditionally 3-4 months worth of inventory is considered good, the latest numbers say there isn’t even a month’s worth of homes for sale right now. The number currently is 0.6 months supply, meaning that if nothing new came on the market over the next 2-3 weeks, there would be zero houses for sale.
“We are accustomed to low inventory, but I think we are all surprised to see the influx of buyers from out of state coming to the Tampa Bay area,” says Florida Executive Realty Realtor Judi Beck. “To have less than one month of inventory is really uncharted waters.”
The inventory in the Greater Tampa area in April 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic was right around 10,700 homes for sale, with an average selling price of $271,000.
Just 12 months later, inventory was down to just 2,500 homes, but the average sale price had rocketed to $358,000.
In New Tampa, there were only 34 single-family homes listed for sale as of June 11, and 14 of those were asking for more than $500,000 — pricing a lot of first-time buyers out of the market.
Only five homes were listed under $300,000.
For a 3BR/2BA, the prices ranged from a low of $324,900 to $408,000; for a 4BR/3BA, the range was from as little as $307,000 to $1.25 million.
“I think personally, the local people aren’t moving out in as big numbers as the people coming in,” says 17-year real estate veteran Molly Nye, of Century 21 Bill Nye Realty. “There is a supply problem. We’re six months out from this being exciting and frustrating.”
Nye says she is seeing home seekers bidding on empty lots, “which is unheard of.”
It’s a seller’s market, so buyers may need to be more aggressive than usual. The fewer contingencies a buyer has, the more attractive the offer is to the seller, and they typically have many offers to choose from. The seller just needs a place to go once he or she sells. Nye says she has a friend who sold her home to cash out, and is now living with another friend because she can’t find a place to buy.
“She told me that she didn’t think that would happen to her,” Nye says. “I’m seeing a lot more of that.”
*****
In the early- to mid-2000s, a similar boom was instigated by poor lending practices and rampant investor speculation. That led to the average list price in New Tampa, for example, rising from $272,000 in 2003 to $443,000 in 2006.
Then, the real estate “bubble” of 2007-08 popped..
By 2011, the median home in New Tampa was down to $236,000.
Economists and Realtors alike will tell you that this boom is related primarily to the migration of people to Florida, from places like New York, California and all points in between. The ability to work remotely here has been another driving factor. Henry says that four of his last six sales have been to New Yorkers. Because of Covid-19 and the economy, thousands of people each day are leaving states that are not as “open” as Florida, or as tax-friendly, selling their homes and showing up on the doorsteps of local Realtors flush with cash.
Do we risk another real estate bubble/crash reminiscent of 2007-08?
“There is no bubble,” Henry says.
*****
According to Darragh, the New Tampa market is healthy and finally realizing the growth in appreciation it has long deserved.
“The New Tampa market has been undervalued for more than eight years, with a slow growth in appreciation, due to the amount of new construction available,” she says. ”Now that the new construction inventory in Wesley Chapel has come to an abrupt halt, the re-sale market pricing in the New Tampa area has jumped overnight.”
Kristy Darragh.
Over the past six months, home prices across the country have risen by 17 percent. Nationally, the typical home asking price in May was $380,000, up 15% from last year.
“Absorption rate is a term used in the real estate industry to describe how fast homes are selling,” Darragh says. “A normal absorption rate for Tampa for the first quarter of this year should have been 40-50% per month. That means that each month, when new listings come on the market, the number of buyers will buy up 40-50% of those new listings. This year, that number is a staggering 179%-200%!”
That means this aggressive absorption rate is sucking up everything that is being built, every new listing that comes on the market, plus the existing inventory of homes. And, as Nye says, even empty lots.
Realtors agree that supply and demand are dangerously out of balance, and question whether this is economically sustainable. The only thing that can slow it down, they say, would be more inventory. However, there’s no indication of an inventory build-up anytime soon.
Henry is convinced that higher interest rates will eventually cause some paralysis. He says it happened in 2018 for a brief period, stopping home owners from selling out of their low mortgage rates and also slowing demand. But, he believes that situation could be at least a year or two away.
“I feel very strongly that in the end, we’ll come in for a soft landing,” Henry says, “but it’s going to take, unfortunately, interest rates increasing and making it impossible for people to buy at 4 or 5 percent. They will be unwilling, and in many cases, unable.”
Darragh has spent hours poring over the data to figure out the current market. Her desk is covered in pie charts and bar graphs, while her computer constantly refreshes to update her on the local housing market in real-time.
With her 30 years of experience selling in the New Tampa area and, with more than $1 billion in sales over that time, she is fascinated looking through her pages of housing statistics. While conventional wisdom says a good seller’s market is bad for buyers, that’s not the case if you are a believer, like she is, that this will continue for another year or two…or longer.
“This market is a once-in-a-generation kind of market, because of what stimulated it (a pandemic),” Darragh says. “It’s a very good market for both buyers and sellers — and people don’t think about it that way — but looking at the charts and listening to real estate experts and economists, they don’t think this is going to end anytime soon. This could be the beginning of something that, in theory, goes on for years.”
The pricing surge has been eye-opening, especially in places like Seminole Heights and South Tampa, but while the urge to cash out may be strong, buyers waiting for a slowdown may be waiting a while.
That’s because, she says, New Tampa is only just now catching back up from the crash of 2007-08.
Based on a Florida Executive Realty “Pent Up Equity” chart, New Tampa’s median home price was $236,000 in 2011, well below the $289,000 it should have been, according to a normal rate of appreciation of 3.5 percent per year.
New Tampa’s median home price is currently up to $380,000, but the normal rate of appreciation says it should be $407,570.
“We haven’t even gotten back to normal yet,” says Darragh. “There’s still plenty of room to run before you even see a bubble.”
That means “deals” can still be found.
In other areas of Tampa, the average “Sold” price far exceeds the price in a market with a normal rate of appreciation. In South Tampa, for example, it’s $175,000 over normal market value; in Carrollwood, it’s $125,000 over; in Seminole Heights, it’s plus-$120,000; and, in Wesley Chapel, it’s almost $100,000 over.
It’s a befuddling market and, while there are plenty of online options to do your home shopping, selecting the right Realtor might be the most important decision you ever make. It is a sentiment strongly echoed by Henry, Beck and Nye, because the market is more complicated and moving faster than ever.
“If you ever needed a local expert, it’s now,” Darragh says.
